Abstract. This article utilizes MaxEnt modeling to determine suitable ecological habitats for Inula
grandis, a valuable medicinal plant, aiming to support conservation planning and plantation
establishment under current and future climate conditions. Species occurrence data were obtained
from open-access biodiversity databases, while 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation were used
as environmental predictors. The jackknife test identified four key variables influencing habitat
suitability: maximum temperature of the warmest month, average temperature of the warmest
quarter, precipitation of the warmest month, and precipitation of the wettest quarter. These
variables highlight the species’ preference for warm temperatures and adequate rainfall during
growth periods. Modeling results indicate that suitable habitats are mainly located in the foothills
and slopes of the Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges, particularly in Tashkent, Jizzakh,
Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhondarya, Andijan, and Fergana. The study recommends establishing
managed plantations in these areas to support conservation and sustainable cultivation. Under the
RCP 8.5 climate scenario for 2050, predicted shifts in habitat suitability stress the need for proactive
strategies. The findings contribute essential data for biodiversity preservation, climate adaptation,
and species-focused conservation planning.