Climate change has recently gained increased attention from the global scientific community
due to its widespread and accelerating impacts on ecosystems. The Eastern Black Sea Region
of Turkey is expected to be significantly affected by these changes, as projected by the RegCM3
regional climate model.
Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis), an ecologically and economically important tree species
endemic to this region, is highly sensitive to climatic shifts. Recent observations indicate that global
warming has contributed to severe bark beetle outbreaks, resulting in the death of over 200,000
trees.
This study evaluates the current status and future vulnerability of Oriental spruce ecosystems
using field observations and existing literature on regional climate projections. According to
Dalfes et al. (2007), regional temperatures are expected to rise by 2–4 °C over the next century.
Precipitation is projected to increase by 200–300 mm in the eastern part of the region, while no
significant change is expected in the western areas.
Temperature increases, particularly in the western zone, are likely to intensify drought stress,
elevate bark beetle infestations, and increase wildfire risk. A potential upward altitudinal shift
of 400–800 meters in the spruce distribution zone is anticipated, along with a general upward
movement of the treeline across both eastern and western parts of the region.
These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive forest management and conservation
strategies to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change on Oriental spruce ecosystems.
Keywords: Climate change; oriental spruce (Picea orientalis); Eastern Black Sea region; forest
ecosystems; bark beetle; Turkey